Café com Macro: Geopolitics Killed the "Risk-On" Mood — and the Price of Money Is Rising Again Hey everyone. Pull up a chair. What was supposed to be a "risk-on" week turned into a general alert. The trigger couldn't be more classic: gunfire in the Middle East. The US bombed Iran again, and the market woke up to the fact that oil at $95 and European gas at 2023 highs don't mix well with interest rate cuts. Let me be direct: the "soft landing" thesis is being tested. The market reaction is clear: those who were long duration (long-term bonds) took losses, and the stock market is carefully picking its hiding spots. Let's get to what matters. --- ### 1. The Return of the "Petro-Attack": Brent at $94.65 and the World on High Alert
Fact: The truce is over. Attacks on tanker ships and US bombings in Iran pushed Brent to $94.65 and WTI to $90.22, renewing six-week highs. Play: I'D HOLD (but with a tight stop). For the equity investor, this is an inflationary tax. For commodity traders, it's gold dust, but with gap risk. I wouldn't be buying Petrobras (PETR4) at the highs, but I also wouldn't zero out the position. The risk premium is too high to be short. Assets/Sectors: The energy sector as a whole (PETR4, PRIO3), airlines (AZUL4) suffer from fuel costs, and the entire discretionary consumer sector (MGLU3, LREN3) tends to suffer with inflation. --- ### 2. The US 30-Year Bond is Bleeding: The "Trump Trade" on Rates Turned into a Counterattack
Fact: The rise in long-term yields in the US, Germany (2011 highs), and the UK erased the Treasury Secretary's gains, showing the market is demanding a higher premium due to the oil shock and fiscal deficits. Play: I'D SELL (or significantly reduce) long-term bonds. If long-term rates rise, money gets expensive for everyone. This crushes growth valuations (the famous "multiple compression"). If you hold a long-duration US fixed-income ETF (like TLT), the pain will continue. The market is signaling inflation will return, and the Fed will be handcuffed. --- ### 3. European Inflation Accelerates to Sept/2023 Levels: The ECB Has a Problem
Fact: The Eurozone CPI accelerated by 0.4 percentage points, driven by energy (+14.3%), and now the market is again pricing in rate hikes by the European Central Bank. Play: I'D REDUCE exposure to European stocks. The ECB will have to choose between growth and containing inflation. With natural gas at TTF €69.8/MWh, German industry will suffer. This is terrible for the Euro Stoxx 50 index. Being long Europe right now is asking for trouble. --- ### 4. Dell (DELL) Rises 10% and the AI Cycle Shows Who's in Charge
Fact: Dell raised its guidance for fiscal year 2027, with record orders of $60.9 billion driven by AI server sales. Nvidia (NVDA) and AWS closed a deal for an additional 2 million GPUs. Play: I'D BUY on the next dip. The market is punishing any company that misses expectations, but Dell proved that demand for AI infrastructure is real and not a bubble. While the world fights over oil, the big techs are building the "power plants" of the future. It's the only "growth thesis" that's paying for itself. --- ### 5. Israel on the Rise: The Defense Industry is the New "Safe Haven"
Fact: With the conflict spreading, Elbit Systems (ESLT) rose 21.7% this week and is up 165% over 12 months, driven by demand for anti-aircraft defense systems and drones. Play: I'D BUY (on any dip). In a world where diplomacy has failed, the arms industry is the only sector with earnings visibility. It's not pretty, but it's profitable. In Brazil, Embraer (EMBR3) also benefits from this race for defense technology and military aviation, though with less intensity than its Israeli counterpart. --- ### Immediate Opportunities - Oil & Gas: International oil company stocks (XOM) and LNG infrastructure companies tend to benefit from the supply shock. In Brazil, PRIO3 could see a short rally, but the risk of government intervention is the "elephant in the room." - Defense & Cybersecurity: The world is rearming. Look for companies with long-term government contracts. - US Dollar (DXY): In a risk-off scenario, the dollar tends to strengthen against currencies of energy-importing countries. - AI Stocks with "Real Earnings": Don't buy promises. Buy what already delivers results, like Dell and Broadcom (AVGO) , which are capitalizing on hyperscaler capex. --- ### Risks on the Radar - Closure of the Strait of Hormuz: If Iran retaliates by fully blocking the strait, oil could jump to $120+ within hours. This would break the backbone of importing emerging markets. - Long-Term US Interest Rates: If the 10-year yield breaks recent levels, the US stock market could suffer a "mini-crash" in valuations. - Price Intervention: The Biden administration (or any government) might try to release strategic petroleum reserves. This provides temporary relief but doesn't solve the structural supply problem. - Contagion Effect in the Banking Sector: With inflation returning, central banks might be forced to raise rates. Financial institutions with extended treasuries could suffer. --- Source of news: Yahoo Finance, Econbrowser, CNBC, Expansion.com, and Slashdot. --- *This analysis is personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice.*