Thursday morning, January 23, 2026. The market woke up to a mix of geopolitical relief and new climate fears. Let's get straight to what matters.

The News Driving the Game

Out of 10 news items, these are the ones that will actually move your portfolio today.

1. Tariff Relief Boosts Wall Street
   President Trump canceled new tariffs against European allies, defusing a geopolitical bomb and sending U.S. indices into a strong recovery.
   Effect: I Would Buy. The relief is real, but selective. Focus on cyclically sensitive sectors that suffered the most from the tension. Keep an eye on IWM (U.S. small-cap ETF, Russell 2000) and the industrial sector, like CAT (Caterpillar). European stocks may also get a boost, via VGK (Europe ETF).
2. Gold in Uncharted Territory as War Winds Blow
   The metal hit a record above $4,800/ounce, with analysts projecting targets up to $7,000 for 2026, fueled by geopolitical tensions and a flight to safety.
   Effect: I Would Hold (if you already have it) or I Would Buy an initial position. The momentum is strong. The direct asset is physical gold via GLD or IAU. Gold miners, like NEM (Newmont), tend to leverage the move.
3. Winter Hit the Panic Button on Natural Gas
   A severe winter storm in the U.S. and intense cold in Europe sent natural gas prices soaring, with the European contract surpassing 40 euros/MWh for the first time in six months.
   Effect: I Would Reduce or take profits on short-term positions. This is a weather-driven move, volatile and likely temporary. Impacted sectors: gas producers (EQT), energy ETFs (XLE) and, negatively, European utilities and heavy industries that rely on the input.
4. Nvidia CEO Says the AI Party Has Barely Started
   Nvidia's Jensen Huang stated at the World Economic Forum that the AI industry needs trillions more in investment, trying to calm bubble fears.
   Effect: I Would Hold the core of an AI position, but with caution. The narrative is powerful, but valuations are in the realm of faith. The anchor asset is NVDA. Other beneficiaries are semiconductors (SMH), cloud computing (MSFT, AMZN) and data infrastructure.
5. Bitcoin: The (Extreme) Optimism of a Billionaire
   Venture capital investor Tim Draper predicted Bitcoin could reach $250,000 in the next six months.
   Effect: I Would Sell (if sitting on large profits) or avoid entering now. Such specific and aggressive short-term price predictions are, in my view, more a sign of euphoria than solid analysis. It's high-risk noise.
6. Nubank Accelerates with Mercedes in F1
   Brazilian fintech Nubank closed a long-term global partnership with the Mercedes Formula 1 team, seeking to strengthen its brand internationally.
   Effect: I Would Hold. This is an aggressive and expensive marketing move. It may improve global brand perception, but the direct financial impact in the short term is limited. The main focus for asset NUBR33 (BDR) or NU (NYSE) remains operational execution in Latin America.

Immediate Opportunities

• Rotational Relief: With the tariff truce, previously pressured U.S. industrial sectors and small caps (IWM) could have a relief rally.
• Geopolitical Hedge: Maintaining a small position in gold (GLD) makes sense as long as headlines about Trump and global tensions persist.
• Defensive Selection: In times of volatility, consistent dividend stocks and defensive sectors (healthcare, utilities) are safe harbors. The news from *Expansión* points in that direction.

Risks on the Radar

• Climate vs. Portfolio: The extreme volatility in natural gas is a reminder of how weather events can destabilize commodity markets and inflation in 2026.
• Narrative vs. Reality in AI: The Nvidia CEO's statement is a sign that even industry leaders are worried about bubble perception. Any disappointment in results could cause sharp corrections.
• Crypto Euphoria: Predictions like Draper's on Bitcoin are a classic sign of overheated sentiment, increasing the risk of a violent reversal.
• Truce, not Peace: Trump's withdrawal of tariffs is positive, but the tone and unpredictability of trade policy remain a constant background risk.

Sources consulted: