Daily General Analysis
February 23, 2026
Coffee is hot, the market not so much. Let's get straight to what matters in today's news. Geopolitical tension is at the top, but money keeps flowing into the future. Here's my take.
The News That Matters
Trump Considers Attack on Iran as Negotiations Resume
Summary: The Trump administration is evaluating a targeted military strike on Iran while resuming nuclear talks in Geneva, amid a massive U.S. military buildup in the Middle East.
My Action: I Would Hold positions in oil and gold, but without increasing exposure now; it's a time for caution, not for betting.
Impacted Assets/Sectors: Oil (WTI, Brent), Gold (GLD), Defense Stocks (LMT, NOC), Volatility Index (VIX).
Brazil and China Seen as Winners in Trump's New Tariffs
Summary: A study indicates Brazil and China come out with a relative advantage after the U.S. imposes global 15% tariffs, which hurt the EU and the UK more.
My Action: I Would Buy exposure to Brazil (EWZ) and China (MCHI), focusing on commodities and export sectors.
Impacted Assets/Sectors: Brazil ETF (EWZ), China ETF (MCHI), Steel and Iron Ore (VALE3.SA), Soybeans.
Big Tech to Invest $650 B in AI in 2026, Says Bridgewater
Summary: Alphabet (GOOGL), Amazon (AMZN), Meta (META), and Microsoft (MSFT) are expected to collectively invest around $650 billion in AI infrastructure this year.
My Action: I Would Buy on dips, especially in MSFT and AMZN, which are the "pickaxe sellers" in this gold rush.
Impacted Assets/Sectors: Microsoft (MSFT), Amazon (AMZN), Nvidia (NVDA), Semiconductor ETFs (SOXX).
Loblaw Announces $2.4 B Investment to Expand in Canada
Summary: Canadian retail giant Loblaw (L.TO) will invest $2.4 billion in 2026 to build 70 new stores and create over 9,000 jobs.
My Action: I Would Hold. It's a sign of health for Canada's staples retail sector, but growth is organic and slow.
Impacted Assets/Sectors: Loblaw Companies (L.TO), Canadian Retail Sector, Mall REITs, Construction Companies.
Where to Put Money Now
- Geopolitical Hedge: Maintaining a small position in gold (GLD) or oil (USO) makes sense with the Middle East boiling over.
- The Tariff Game: Seek exposure to commodity-exporting emerging markets, like Brazil (EWZ), which may benefit from forced deglobalization.
- The Surefire Theme: Use any significant dip in Big Tech (especially MSFT, AMZN) as a buying opportunity. The $650B capex is concrete and generates future revenue.
What Keeps Me Up at Night
- Iran Escalation: A miscalculation or a broader U.S. military action could send oil prices above $100 and freeze global risk.
- Total Trade War: The U.S. global 15% tariffs could trigger chain retaliations, harming world trade and corporate profits.
- "Capex Hangover": The massive investment in AI is good for infrastructure providers today, but raises questions about future returns for the Big Tech companies themselves.
This analysis is personal opinion and does not constitute an investment recommendation.
