Folks, grab a coffee because the scenario this Thursday (05/01/2026) is heating up. Oil has spiked, big techs have flexed their muscles, and geopolitics has taken center stage. I'll get straight to the point: I've picked out the 5 facts that really impact your portfolio. No beating around the bush.

1. Oil Surges on Extended Blockade in the Strait of Hormuz

Fact: Brent crude jumped nearly 7% (in the USD 119-120 range) after Trump signaled the naval blockade of Iran would continue, and the UN warned the global economy is being "strangled."

Verdict: I Would Sell (direct exposure to oil) — the peak already reflects the panic. Those who are long can take profits. I prefer to wait for a pullback to reassess.

Influenced Assets/Sectors: Petrobras (PETR4), Exxon Mobil (XOM), airline sector (GOL, Azul), and maritime transport.

2. Alphabet (GOOGL) Breaks the Bank: $100 Billion in Revenue, Profit Nearly Doubles

Fact: Alphabet announced a spectacular Q1 2026, surpassing $100 billion in revenue and nearly doubling net profit, even in a historically weak quarter for advertising.

Verdict: I Would Buy — the company proved it can grow even in an adverse macro environment. Diversification (Cloud, AI, YouTube) is the engine.

Influenced Assets/Sectors: Alphabet (GOOGL), Meta (META), digital advertising market, and the technology sector in general.

3. Microsoft (MSFT) Beats Expectations with Azure Growing 40%

Fact: Microsoft reported profit and revenue above expectations for Q3 2026, driven by explosive 40% growth in its Azure (cloud) division and artificial intelligence.

Verdict: I Would Buy — the long-term thesis remains intact. The AI Copilot is generating real revenue, and margins are improving.

Influenced Assets/Sectors: Microsoft (MSFT), Amazon (AWS – AMZN), data center sector and semiconductors (Nvidia – NVDA).

4. Anthropic Could Be Worth Over $900 Billion in New Funding Round

Fact: AI startup Anthropic (creator of Claude) is negotiating an investment round that could value the company at over $900 billion, surpassing OpenAI and backed by Google and Amazon.

Verdict: I Would Hold (for those already exposed via Big Techs) — a surreal valuation for a company without proportional revenue. Interesting, but I prefer to bet via Google and Amazon, who are already indirect owners.

Influenced Assets/Sectors: Alphabet (GOOGL), Amazon (AMZN), NVIDIA (NVDA), and the generative AI sector as a whole.

5. Iran Evades Blockade with $800 Million Smuggling Scheme

Fact: Iran is using oil tankers disguised as Iraqi ships to continue exporting oil, dodging the American blockade that has already seized 42 vessels and caused an estimated $6 billion loss to the Iranians.

Verdict: I Would Reduce (positions in shipping and marine insurance companies) — the risk of secondary sanctions and seizures is far from over. Regulatory uncertainty is toxic for the sector.

Influenced Assets/Sectors: Insurers (P&I Clubs), shipping companies (Maersk – AMKBY), oil trading, and logistics firms in the Middle East.

Immediate Opportunities

• Buy tech on dips: Alphabet and Microsoft are safe havens in this environment of high interest rates and energy inflation. Cloud and AI revenue is resilient.
• Oil: sell the rally and buy airlines: If oil corrects, airline stocks (GOL, Azul, American Airlines) could see a relief rally. Keep an eye out.
• Gold and geopolitical protection: With Hormuz closed, gold (GLD) and the dollar remain hedges. Consider a small allocation to gold ETFs.
• AI via Big Techs: You don't need to buy Anthropic directly. Google and Amazon already have that value embedded. Prefer the ones hosting the party.

Risks on the Radar

• Escalation in the Middle East: A direct attack on Iran or the total closure of Hormuz could push oil to $150. That would break the global economy and crash stock markets.
• AI Bubble: Valuations of startups like Anthropic are at cosmic levels. If revenue doesn't follow suit, the adjustment will be painful for those indirectly exposed via ETFs.
• Imported Recession: The oil shock is already being felt in Europe and Asia. Weaker GDP could contaminate tech results in Q2.
• Prolonged Blockade: Even if a truce comes tomorrow, the UN says supply chains take months to recover. Prepare for high inflation for longer.

Sources:

• BBC News - Blockade of Hormuz is strangling global economy
• Fox News - Iran's oil smuggling scheme
• Seeking Alpha - Oil surges nearly $7
• AdExchanger - Alphabet exceeds $100 billion in Q1...