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Daily General Analysis

May 11, 2026

Coffee Briefing – May 12, 2026

Team, the landscape is heating up. Oil is exploding, China is booming on exports, and AI is gobbling up every bit of memory on the planet. Let's get straight to what impacts your wallet.

1. Oil: Trump torpedoes the truce and the barrel takes off

Fact: Trump called Iran's peace proposal "totally unacceptable," sending Brent crude to over $105 and triggering maximum alert in the Strait of Hormuz.

I Would Sell (direct short-term oil exposure is a game of Russian roulette; I'd rather sit this one out)

Sectors: Petrobras (PETR4), Exxon (XOM), airlines (AZUL4), chemical industry

2. Memory and SSD: Shortage until 2028, according to Silicon Motion

Fact: Silicon Motion's CEO warned that AI has bought up manufacturing capacity years in advance, locking up DRAM and NAND supply — price hikes are guaranteed.

I Would Buy (factories are full, and pricing power lies with Samsung and SK Hynix)

Sectors: Samsung (SSNLF), SK Hynix (HXSCL), Micron (MU), equipment suppliers like ASML (ASML)

3. China: Exports surge 14.1%, imports soar 25.3%

Fact: April data came in well above expectations — strong external demand and heated domestic consumption, with a surplus of $84.8 billion.

I Would Buy (China is riding the global recovery; commodities and luxury retail benefit)

Sectors: Vale (VALE3), iron ore, Chinese textiles, luxury retail (Richemont)

4. AI swallows 60% of global venture capital

Fact: In the first quarter of 2026, AI startups captured 60% of all venture capital invested globally — an absolute record.

I Would Buy (capital flow defines the next cycle; AMD and infrastructure suppliers are the players)

Sectors: AMD (AMD), Nvidia (NVDA), cloud providers (Amazon, Microsoft), data centers

5. AMD becomes the "darling" and surges 350% in 12 months

Fact: AMD's data center revenue grew 57% in Q1, with Meta and OpenAI snatching up Helios chips — it has surpassed Nvidia in short-term momentum.

I Would Buy (the stock still has room to run with a diversified base and record cash flow)

Sectors: AMD (AMD), PCB suppliers, server manufacturers (Super Micro), AI competitors

6. Wind turbines: Composites market could grow 10% per year

Fact: The global composites market for wind turbines is expected to jump from $17.7 billion to $28.9 billion by 2030, driven by larger blades and green policies.

I Would Hold (good sector, but not buying now with high oil diverting political focus)

Sectors: Vestas (VWDRY), Siemens Gamesa, fiberglass manufacturers, specialty chemicals

Immediate Opportunities

Memory/SSD: Buy Samsung (SSNLF) and SK Hynix (HXSCL) — structural shortage and rising prices.
AI Infrastructure: AMD (AMD) still has decent valuation vs. Nvidia; Meta and OpenAI guarantee demand.
Exporting China: Vale (VALE3) benefits from Chinese appetite for ore; textiles and capital goods rise alongside.

Risks on the Radar

Uncontrolled Oil: If Iran closes Hormuz for good, Brent could hit $120 (Citi is already pricing this in) — global inflation and interest rates rise.
AI Bubble: 60% of VC in a single sector is dangerous concentration; a valuation bust would take down the entire ecosystem.
U.S.-Iran Geopolitics: Any direct attack on oil tankers would paralyze supplies and break logistics chains.