Coffee & Analysis: May 15, 2026

Hey everyone. I grabbed a double espresso and scoured the news to bring you the moves that really impact your portfolio. Let's get straight to what matters.

1. SpaceX Accelerates IPO to June 12, $2 Trillion Valuation

Fact: SpaceX (future ticker: SPCX) files its public offering next Wednesday and aims for a Nasdaq listing in June, raising up to $75 billion at a trillion-dollar valuation.

Verdict: I Would Buy – It's the hottest private company on the planet, with real revenue from rockets, Starlink, and government contracts. If the opening price isn't outrageous, I'll allocate a modest position in the IPO. High risk, but massive potential upside.

Assets/sectors impacted: SPCX (SpaceX), aerospace & defense, satellites, electronic component suppliers.

2. Berkshire Hathaway Triples Alphabet Stake, Buys Delta and Macy's

Fact: Greg Abel's Berkshire more than tripled its bet on GOOGL, bought $2.6 billion in Delta Air Lines (DAL) shares, and also entered Macy's (M).

Verdict: I Would Buy – Following the Omaha oracle's nose is rarely a bad idea. Alphabet looks cheap vs. peers, Delta benefits from the international travel rebound, and Macy's could be a turnaround story. I'll copy the play, but with a stop-loss.

Assets/sectors impacted: GOOGL, DAL, M, consumer discretionary (retail) and technology (big tech).

3. Boeing Secures Record Sale of 200 Planes to China

Fact: Boeing (BA) confirmed an order for 200 aircraft from China, its first major sale in nearly a decade, following the Trump-Xi meeting.

Verdict: I Would Buy – This news unlocks a market that was frozen for Boeing. Shares will rise in the short term. It's a sign of a trade truce that also benefits suppliers. I'll go long on BA and monitor it.

Assets/sectors impacted: BA, aerospace suppliers (SPR, RTX), Chinese airlines, air transport sector.

4. Global Bonds in Collapse as US 30-Year Yield Tops 5.1%

Fact: Persistent inflation and the war shock (Middle East) have pushed the 30-year Treasury to its highest level in 20 years, sweeping the global fixed-income market.

Verdict: I Would Sell – Long-term bonds are in a clear downtrend. Anyone who bought long-dated bonds in recent years is bleeding. I prefer cash, short duration, or assets that benefit from high rates (banks). I'm not touching long bonds right now.

Assets/sectors impacted: Long-duration fixed-income ETFs (TLT), regional banks, real estate, emerging market currencies.

5. Brazilian Agribusiness Hits Export Record with $16.6 Billion in April

Fact: Brazilian agribusiness exported $16.65 billion in April, the highest value in the historical series since 1997, driven by soybeans, meat, and corn.

Verdict: I Would Hold – Excellent news, but the market is already pricing in a good part of this cycle. Those already exposed to meatpackers and trading companies (BRFS, JBSS3, SLCE3) should hold; for new entries, it's better to wait for a correction. The fundamentals are solid.

Assets/sectors impacted: BRFS, JBSS3, SLCE3, Brazilian port logistics sector, fertilizers.

6. US Energy Secretary Threatens Military Force Against Iran

Fact: Trump's Energy Secretary stated that military force is necessary if Iran continues "holding the world economy hostage" in reference to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

Verdict: I Would Reduce – Acute geopolitical risk. Oil will spike, but volatility could explode. Those overly long on oil stocks (XOM, CVX) might take advantage of the peak to reduce their position. This is a binary scenario: either oil goes to $130 or the market crashes with an escalation.

Assets/sectors impacted: Oil (XOM, CVX, USO), defense (RTX, LMT), insurance companies, emerging market currencies (especially Brazil and India).

Immediate Opportunities

• SpaceX IPO (SPCX) – Get into the order book at the range and hold for the medium term.
• Boeing (BA) Shares – Buy at the open following the China news; use a short stop-loss.
• Alphabet (GOOGL) – Berkshire is buying – follow their 13F. Price is still reasonable.
• Delta Air Lines (DAL) – Berkshire put in $2.6 billion; the international flight recovery is real.
• Brazilian Agribusiness – Companies like BRFS (BRF) and JBSS3 (JBS) can ride the export record wave.

Risks on the Radar

• Iran–US Escalation – Strait of Hormuz closed = oil at $130+ and global markets in panic.
• Rising Long-Term Rates – 30-year Treasury at 5.1% crushes bonds, real estate, and growth stock valuations.
• Persistent Inflation – If the May CPI comes in above expectations, the Fed could be forced to raise rates.