Daily General Analysis
May 23, 2026
Folks, I sat down with my coffee and sorted out the moves that will really shake the board. It was a heavy week: war, a new Fed, the rupee plummeting, and a true "Trump-proof" setup being built in Europe. Let's get straight to what matters.
1. Fed with a new sheriff and rising inflation
Fact: Kevin Warsh took over the Fed presidency amid sticky inflation, and the bond market is already testing the new management.
Effect: I Would Reduce exposure to long duration and growth stocks.
Affected Assets/Sectors: Long T-Bonds (TLT), S&P 500 (SPY), technology sector (QQQ), regional banks (KRE).
2. EU and Mexico sign anti-Trump tariff deal
Fact: The new free trade agreement eliminates tariffs on nearly all products between the blocs, shielding supply chains from aggressive US policy.
Effect: I Would Buy ETFs for Mexico and exporting Europe.
Affected Assets/Sectors: iShares MSCI Mexico (EWW), European automakers (VOW3.DE), agribusiness (DE), logistics (FDX).
3. Peace in the Middle East? Iran confirms mediation with Qatar and Pakistan
Fact: Iran confirmed negotiations in Doha to end the war with the US, with Pakistan as the main mediator.
Effect: I Would Hold oil positions, but not increase — the scenario could ease the risk premium.
Affected Assets/Sectors: Brent Oil (BNO), defense (LMT), airlines (AAL), insurers (CB).
4. France puts €1.5 billion into chips and quantum computing
Fact: Macron announced a €1.5 billion investment to accelerate semiconductors and quantum computing, driven by the US vs. China race.
Effect: I Would Buy selectively into European chip equipment suppliers.
Affected Assets/Sectors: ASML (ASML), Infineon (IFX.DE), Quantum Computing (QUBT), STMicroelectronics (STM).
5. RBI burns nearly $10 billion to hold the rupee — and it fell hard
Fact: The Indian central bank sold $9.8 billion in March, but the rupee still recorded its biggest monthly drop since 2019.
Effect: I Would Reduce exposure to Indian indices and local bonds.
Affected Assets/Sectors: iShares India (INDA), Tata Motors (TTM), Indian IT sector (INFY), Indian banks (IBN).
6. Hyperliquid earns 4x more than Ethereum — and no one is talking about it
Fact: The Hyperliquid platform generated $49 million in monthly revenue, compared to just $9.9 million for Ethereum.
Effect: I Would Hold ETH, but keep an eye on high-performance competitors.
Affected Assets/Sectors: Ethereum (ETH), L2 solutions (ARB, OP), decentralized exchanges (UNI), infrastructure tokens (SOL).
Immediate opportunities
- Buy EWZ (Brazil) if a correction comes — migratory flow from India could pull in emerging markets.
- Build a position in European chip suppliers (ASML, IFX) driven by the French plan.
- Sell oil volatility if Iran peace talks advance.
- Buy TLT if the new Fed signals a pause in rates — inflation remains the risk.
Risks on the radar
- Hawkish Fed: Warsh might raise rates faster than expected, breaking valuations.
- Indian Rupee: if capital flight continues, contagion to other emerging markets is real.
- US-Mexico trade war: even with the deal, Trump could retaliate in other ways.
- Crypto bubble: Hyperliquid showing revenue doesn't mean fundamentals — be careful with allocation in small projects.
Sources: RBI and Rupee | France invests €1.5 bi | Iran-US negotiations | EU-Mexico deal | Warsh takes over Fed |
Süddeutsche Zeitung
Handel: EU und Mexiko unterzeichnen Freihandelsabkommen
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