Market in "Risk-On" Mode: 5 Signals to Act Now 1. Hot Geopolitics: US x Iran and Oil at the Center of the Radar The US attack on Iran and the UAE's accusation of a missile attack on an ADNOC tanker in the Strait of Hormuz are not noise: they are a game-changer. The route through which about 20% of the world's oil passes is under real risk, which affects the commodity, insurers, and global logistics. Verdict: I'd Hold exposure to energy, but with a tight stop. Affected assets: PETR4 (Petrobras), PETR3, shipping stocks like Maersk (AMKBY), and Brent itself (futures). The risk of escalation is extremely high, but volatility will allow buying cheap on a market hiccup. 2. Amazon (AMZN) Breaks the $3 Trillion Barrier and Bezos Sells Amazon surpassed the historic $3.07 trillion market cap mark. The news, however, is that Jeff Bezos sold 15 million shares. It's not panic; it's billionaire wealth management. The company remains dominant in cloud (AWS) and retail. The insider sale, however, is a classic "short-term ceiling" signal. Verdict: I'd Hold the position, but wouldn't make new purchases now. Stocks like MGLU3 and MELI34 may benefit from the sector's spillover effect, but Amazon is the anchor. Affected assets: AMZN (Nasdaq), IVVB11 (S&P 500 ETF), and the tech sector as a whole. 3. Nvidia (NVDA) Is No Longer "Just" a Chipmaker Nvidia wants to be seen as the infrastructure of the new economy, not just a chip manufacturer. The inauguration of the region's largest "AI factory" by Firebird, with investment from Nvidia, reinforces this thesis. Demand for AI solutions remains insatiable, and Nvidia is the pick-and-shovel supplier of this gold rush. Verdict: I'd Buy NVDA on dips. The long-term thesis is intact, and any profit-taking correction is an opportunity. Affected assets: NVDA (Nasdaq), BOVA11 (for exposure to global techs), and data center companies like Equinix (EQIX). 4. Crypto: Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs Attract $1B Spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs in the US had their best week since April, with $1 billion in inflows. BlackRock brought in 80% of that money. That's serious institutional money returning to the regulated market. Meanwhile, Monero (XMR) surges 11.5% in 24h, showing there's hunger for privacy assets. Verdict: I'd Buy exposure via ETF (like IBIT) for the long term. For the trader, XMR is a tactical trade, but not a portfolio investment. Affected assets: IBIT (Bitcoin ETF), ETHA (Ethereum ETF), BITH11 (in Brazil), and Coinbase (COIN) as the reference exchange. 5. Tariffs and Trump's "Blank Check" The US Senate approved giving Trump authority to impose tariffs of up to 100% on trading partners. This isn't protectionism; it's a political weapon. Sectors like automotive and technology (which depend on global supply chains) will suffer from the cost. The market hasn't priced this in correctly yet. Verdict: I'd Reduce exposure to cyclical sectors dependent on imports, like heavy retail and automakers. Affected assets: Automakers (GM, F), retailers like Target (TGT), and the steel sector (CSN, USIM5) which may benefit from barriers. --- Immediate Opportunities - Oil and defense: With the Strait of Hormuz in flames, Petrobras (PETR4) and defense companies (like Embraer, EMBR3) could see a short rally. Keep an eye on ceasefire news. - Crypto via institutional flows: The $1B inflow via BlackRock indicates the fund may keep buying on weakness. A Bitcoin correction to the $55,000 region could be an interesting entry point via ETF. - AI in emerging markets: Firebird's expansion with Nvidia's support is a warning: the cost of AI infrastructure is falling, which could benefit local tech companies that consume that capacity. Risks on the Radar - Gulf Escalation: A major attack on Saudi oil facilities or an attempt to close the Strait of Hormuz would send oil to unprecedented levels, creating a global supply shock. - AI Bubble: Warren Buffett's warning about the dot-com bubble has resurfaced. If Nvidia delivers weak guidance, the domino effect could bring down the entire tech sector, including Amazon. - Insider Selling: Bezos' move could be a sign that the stock is expensive in the short term. Historically, insider sales precede 5% to 10% corrections, but they don't change the long-term thesis. - Tariff Effect: Tariff authority is a sword of Damocles. Any tariff announcement on Europe (cars) or India could trigger inflation and force the Fed to keep rates higher for longer. Today's Sources: Monero and crypto | Nvidia | Amazon and Bezos | Attack on Iran | Crypto ETFs | Trump Tariffs --- This analysis is personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice.