Ocean Record Alert: The Hidden Cost of Climate Ocean temperatures have hit a new all-time high, intensifying extreme weather events in Europe and putting pressure on coastal ecosystems. This tends to push up prices for agricultural and energy commodities, while also squeezing global insurers. Effect: I Would Reduce (exposure to insurers and reinsurers, e.g., MC on B3, and increase hedging in commodities via GLD or WEAT). Affected assets: Petrobras (PETR4), SLC Agrícola (SLCE3), Reinsurers (IRBR3), Gold ETFs (GOLD11). --- TSMC Hits Record and Reinforces Absolute Dominance in AI The Taiwanese giant reported July revenue of US$ 14.6 billion (NT$ 467.6 billion), up 44.7% year-over-year, driven by demand for 2nm and 3nm chips, as well as advanced packaging. The company also raised its 2026 capex guidance to up to US$ 640 billion. Effect: I Would Buy (TSM on the NYSE, or BDR TSMC34 on B3). The AI "cash cow" thesis remains intact, and the valuation, despite being expensive, is justified by 37% growth year-to-date. Affected assets: NVIDIA (NVDC34), AMD (A1MD34), ASML (ASML34), Semiconductor Index (SMH). --- AI Optimism: Wall Street Picks Its 3 Favorite Stocks Bank of America, JPMorgan, and Oppenheimer have named their top three AI stock picks following the earnings season, with a price target of US$ 255 for one of them. The consensus is that investment in AI infrastructure will continue to accelerate. Effect: I Would Buy (on any dips). Institutional capital flows remain concentrated in a few mega-cap names. Staying on the sidelines is an opportunity risk. Affected assets: Microsoft (MSFT34), Alphabet (GOGL34), Meta (M1TA34), Broadcom (AVGO34). --- Bitcoin Attracts US$ 853 Mi in ETFs: Is the Money Back? Spot Bitcoin ETFs in the US recorded their largest weekly inflow since April, with US$ 853 million, driven mostly by BlackRock's IBIT. This suggests a resurgence of risk appetite for digital assets. Effect: I Would Hold (BTC via ETF BITH11 or QBTC11). The flow is strong, but the asset remains hostage to macroeconomic headlines and interest rate decisions. Affected assets: BlackRock (BLAK34), Coinbase (C2BI34), MicroStrategy (MSTR34), Ethereum (ETHE11). --- Gold Heading to US$ 5,200? UBS Raises Target Gold surged to US$ 4,304 per ounce, its highest level in 7 weeks, with UBS projecting US$ 5,200 by mid-2027. The bank cites central bank purchases, a weak dollar, and falling Treasury yields as the driving forces. Effect: I Would Buy (on pullbacks). Gold remains a sovereign hedge against geopolitical and fiscal risks, especially with the rate-cutting cycle approaching. Affected assets: Miners (AURC11, NUGT), GOLD11 ETF, Barrick Gold (GOLD), Tesouro IPCA+. --- Australian Dollar vs. Yen: A 35-Year Target in Sight Strategists predict the AUD/JPY pair will approach its 35-year high, driven by the RBA's hawkish tone and the gradual weakening of the yen following BoJ intervention. This creates carry trade opportunities. Effect: I Would Buy (long position in AUD/JPY via futures contracts or currency ETFs). The interest rate differential between Australia and Japan should continue to dictate the flow. Affected assets: AUD ETF (FXA), Australian banks (BHP, CBA), Japanese exporters (ITEC34), Nikkei Index (EWJ). --- Immediate Opportunities - Semiconductors (TSMC): Buying at the 30-day low is an opportunity; the US$ 640 billion capex guidance confirms structural demand. - Physical Gold: Use UBS's target (US$ 5,200) as a goal; any dip to US$ 4,150 is an entry point. - AUD/JPY Pair: Stay long on the carry trade while the RBA hasn't cut rates. - Bitcoin ETFs: Monitor if the weekly inflow stays above US$ 500 million; if so, a long position makes sense. --- Risks on the Radar - Ocean temperatures: Direct impact on food and energy inflation, potentially forcing central banks to keep rates higher for longer. - AI concentration: A 5% drop in any mega-cap could drag down the entire index; don't ignore the risk of a correction. - Gold with "overbought" status: If the dollar strengthens, the US$ 5,200 target may be delayed; adjust your stop-loss. - Bitcoin ETF flows: Any negative regulatory news could quickly reverse the flow; positions should have a safety lock. --- _Sources: Olhar Digital | Yahoo Taiwan | Biztoc | Yahoo Taiwan_