Market Analysis – August 25, 2026 Hey everyone. I grabbed my coffee and read through what's been coming in. The landscape is heating up: tariffs are back, copper is exploding, Bitcoin is riding the US debt wave, and China's property crisis is deepening. Let's get straight to what matters, no fluff. --- 1. Trump's Tariffs: Attack on Steel and Canadian Cars Effect: I Would Reduce President Trump announced new tariffs on vehicles and steel from Canada, effective January 1st, but left the door open for negotiation. Bottom line: campaign rhetoric turning into real policy, with a set deadline. This injects direct volatility into US automakers and steelmakers. If I held positions in steel or auto parts stocks, I'd be trimming to wait for the outcome of negotiations. The risk of Canadian retaliation is high. Staying long right now is betting on political rationality, which is rare. - Affected assets: US Steel (X), Nucor (NUE), General Motors (GM), Ford (F). 2. Copper at All-Time High: Freeport-McMoRan Takes Off Effect: I Would Buy The old saying "drill, baby, drill" has given way to "mine, baby, mine." Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) surged 7.64% on Friday, hitting an all-time high of $76.66, driven by rising copper prices. The demand for clean energy and AI is real, and copper is the new oil. The company's cash flow is expected to increase by $870 million this year. I'm long and will stay long. The global supply gap persists, and this move has solid fundamentals behind it. A correction? It could come, but the long-term trend is your friend. - Affected assets: Freeport-McMoRan (FCX), Southern Copper (SCCO), Vale (VALE3), the mining sector as a whole. 3. Bitcoin Rises 23% Amid US Debt Panic Effect: I Would Buy Ray Dalio sounded the alarm on a US debt crisis within three years, and Bitcoin reacted as a store-of-value asset, rising 23%. The "infinite money printer" narrative is back. I see BTC (BTC-USD) as a hedge against fiat currency devaluation. It's not for the faint of heart, but the macro thesis is strengthening. I'm buying in small lots, waiting for pullbacks to accumulate more. - Affected assets: Bitcoin (BTC-USD), Ethereum (ETH-USD), crypto miners (RIOT, MARA). 4. AI Chip: MediaTek Beats Google, and Korea's Materials Race Effect: I Would Hold MediaTek won the bid for Google's TPU chip, and semiconductor materials suppliers in South Korea had their best quarter in years. The AI supply chain is expanding. Those already in this sector, like Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) and ASML, have a tailwind. For those who already hold, maintain. There's still room to grow, but valuations for some companies are already stretched. Now is the time to hold and evaluate new entries into smaller players in the chain. - Affected assets: MediaTek (TWD: 2454), TSMC (TSM), Samsung Electronics, the memory sector. 5. China: Evergrande Verdict Deepens Property Crisis Effect: I Would Sell The life sentence for Evergrande's founder signals the end of an era of impunity, but it also dashes any hope of a state bailout. Investor confidence is in tatters. Anything involving China's property sector, especially listed developers, is to be avoided. There's no sign of a bottom. If you have exposure, cut your losses. Recovery, if it comes, will take years. - Affected assets: Evergrande (liquidated), Country Garden, the Chinese banking sector, construction-linked commodities (iron ore, steel). 6. Russia: Bank Run and Liquidity Crisis Effect: I Would Reduce Russia is suffering a slow-burn banking crisis, with massive deposit outflows as the Kremlin seeks funds for the war. This pressures the ruble and the country's financing capacity. Any exposure to Russian assets (stocks, bonds) is a shot in the dark. I see no positive scenario. I would reduce any residual positions or avoid them altogether. The geopolitical and economic risk is extremely high. - Affected assets: Russian ruble (RUB-USD), Russian stocks (MOEX), the European energy sector (dependency). --- Immediate Opportunities - Copper and mining: Buy dips in FCX and other miners, capitalizing on the clean energy supercycle. - Crypto as a hedge: Diversify a small portion of the portfolio into BTC-USD for protection against currency devaluation. - Semiconductor supply chain: Keep an eye on materials and equipment suppliers, beyond the giant chip designers. Risks on the Radar - Tariff escalation: New tariffs could trigger trade wars on multiple fronts, impacting global trade. - AI bubble: Elevated valuations in AI companies could suffer sharp corrections with any negative news. - Chinese property crisis: Contagion to the country's banking system is a systemic risk that could shake the global economy. --- Sources: - Trump announces tariffs on Canadian vehicles and steel - Bitcoin rises 23% amid US debt policies - AI chip boom boosts materials profits in Korea - Chinese property crisis deepens with Evergrande verdict - MediaTek wins TPU deal with Google - Copper rally boosts Freeport-M