# Good Morning Wednesday, Wall Street! Today is 09/02/2026, and what we have on the table is a scenario that mixes geopolitical panic with silent opportunities. While the news headlines scream about missiles and interest rates, smart money is moving quietly. Let's get straight to what matters. --- ## 1. US vs. Iran Escalation – Oil Surges and Inflation Returns to the Radar The facts: The US bombed Larak Island and Iran responded with missiles on bases in Jordan and the UAE; Brent closed above $90 and WTI at $85.76. Verdict: I Would Reduce exposure to assets sensitive to energy costs. It's not the time to zero out positions, but it's clearly not the time to increase in sectors that suffer from tight margins. Affected assets: - Petrobras (PETR4.SA) – rises with oil, but political risk is high - GOL (GOLL4.SA) and Azul (AZUL4.SA) – jet fuel will eat into margins - Ibovespa (^BVSP) – global risk-off pressure - UNIPAR (UNIP6.SA) – indirectly benefiting from chemical prices --- ## 2. Global Interest Rates at Decade Highs – The Tough Nut to Crack The facts: 10-year bond yields are exploding worldwide, with oil at $92 fueling inflation fears. The fixed income market is sending a clear panic signal. Verdict: I Would Hold defensive positions, but I Would Sell long duration. In this environment, cash and short-dated bonds are the refuge. Long-term growth assets will suffer from a higher discount on the future. Affected assets: - Long-term IPCA+ Treasury Bonds – suffers from mark-to-market - Short-term interest ETFs (CDI) – the safe harbor right now - BITO5.SA (iShares Ibovespa) – multiples compress - Banks (ITUB4.SA, BBDC4.SA) – spreads tend to improve --- ## 3. India Grows 7.8% in Q1 – The Exception That Proves the Rule The facts: The Indian economy grew 7.8% in the April-June quarter, driven by manufacturing and services, despite the Iran crisis and El Niño. Verdict: I Would Buy on the first pullback. India is the only large market with accelerating growth while the world stalls. Worth a medium/long-term position in the country. Affected assets: - India ETF (INDX11.SA) – direct access to growth - Indian tech companies (INFY.NS) – expanding services sector - Agricultural commodities, via SLC Agrícola (SLCE3.SA) – Indian demand remains strong - Indian oil (RELIANCE.NS) – very strong domestic consumption --- ## 4. LuxNet (Taiwan) – AI and the Borderless Data Race The facts: LuxNet, an optical transceiver manufacturer, already has orders secured through 2028 and expects to double data center interconnect revenue by 2027. Verdict: I Would Buy – artificial intelligence needs physical infrastructure, and this Taiwanese company is at the center of that demand. It's a bet on a long-term trend, not on immediate profits. Affected assets: - LuxNet (4966.TW) – direct exposure, for those who have access - Chip manufacturers (AVGO, NVDA) – the entire chain benefits - Data center companies in Brazil (TEND3.SA, LOGG3.SA) – the effect reaches here too - AI ETFs (BITH11.SA, or IVVB11) – technological diversification --- ## 5. Mercado Livre (MELI34) – Silent Giant in Brazil The facts: Mercado Livre moved R$ 73.1 billion in the Brazilian economy in 2025, combining marketplace, logistics, and Mercado Pago. Verdict: I Would Buy on strength. The company is the best-structured "e-commerce + bank" in Latin America. If you don't have exposure, this is a portfolio position that makes sense for the coming years. Affected assets: - Mercado Livre (MELI34.SA) – the local ticker - Magazine Luiza (MGLU3.SA) – competition on alert - Digital banks (NUBR33.SA) – competitive pressure - Logistics sector (LOGG3.SA) – growing volume --- ## 6. Bitcoin – Corporate Treasuries Are Back The facts: Asset manager Strive purchased another US$ 143 million in Bitcoin, at an average price of US$ 79,431, bringing its total to 23,156 BTC amid a renewed wave of digital treasuries. Verdict: I Would Hold – it's not the time to sell, but it's also not the time to go all in. The asset swings with the macro scenario, and rising oil could delay the rally. Accumulate on dips. Affected assets: - Bitcoin (BTC-USD) – directly - Crypto ETFs (BITH11.SA, QBTC11.SA) – regulated exposure - Coinbase (COIN) – trading volume - Mining (HUT8, MARA) – sensitive to BTC price --- ## Immediate Opportunities - Set sail for India: With 7.8% growth, the country is an oasis. Worth a position via ETF or direct stocks. - AI supply chain: LuxNet shows demand remains strong. A pullback is an opportunity for infrastructure names. - High oil for Brazil: Petrobras can generate strong cash flow, but watch out for political interference. Better via dividends than expecting appreciation. - Mercado Livre: Brazil's digital economy is consolidated. MELI34 remains the most complete player. ## Risks on the Radar - Interest rates rising further: If oil stays at $90+, inflation returns and central banks may pause cuts. This drags down growth assets. - Closure of the Strait of Hormuz: If Iran blocks the channel, oil goes to $120+ and the world enters stagflation. - Declining consumption in Brazil: Higher rates for longer could slow retail. Keep an eye on Q3 earnings. -