Good morning, everyone. Coffee's more expensive today and the reason has a name: the Strait of Hormuz.

Let's get straight to the point. The market woke up with the smell of gunpowder in the Middle East, and that changes the game for a lot of people. I grabbed the hottest news and distilled what really matters for your portfolio. No fluff.

Oil on Its Way to $100: The Barrel Became a Hostage of the Gulf

The fact: The US destroyed five Iranian tankers linked to the Revolutionary Guard and Brent already hit $99, with the market pricing in the risk of disruption in the Strait of Hormuz.

My verdict: I would buy exposure to exploration and production (E&P) oil companies, but with a tight stop. This is a geopolitical event, not a structural cycle. If the conflict cools off, the risk premium disappears fast.

Assets on the radar:

• XOM (Exxon Mobil) — integrated giant, strong cash flow, direct exposure to Brent
• CVX (Chevron) — more defensive profile within the sector
• PETR4 (Petrobras) — if Brent stays above $90, its dividend yield becomes obscene
• USO (oil ETF) — for those who want a tactical trade without picking a company

European Natural Gas and Sulfur: Europe Pays the Bill for the Conflict

The fact: With the Iran-US conflict escalating, European natural gas, heating oil, and even sulfur have surged, pressuring an already battered European industry.

My verdict: I would reduce exposure to energy-intensive European industrials. Europe is going to feel it in its pocket again, and anyone producing steel, glass, or chemicals over there will see margins squeezed.

Assets on the radar:

• BAS.DE (BASF) — heavy chemicals, gas-intensive consumption
• TTE (TotalEnergies) — wins in upstream, suffers in European refining
• UNG (natural gas ETF) — volatile, but directionally favored
• European fertilizer sector — sulfur and gas are critical inputs

Japanese Yen Soars: The Domino Effect Few Are Seeing

The fact: The yen is rapidly appreciating, and that affects not only Japan but also Europe and the US, including those who have nothing Japanese in their portfolio.

My verdict: I would reduce positions in the yen carry trade (that famous "borrow cheap in Japan and invest in a higher-return asset"). When the yen rises fast, this trade unwinds and triggers forced selling across everything risky. Stay alert.

Assets on the radar:

• FXY (yen ETF) — direct hedge
• EWJ (Japan ETF) — Japanese exporters suffer from a strong yen
• TLT (long Treasuries) — could feel it if the carry trade unwinds
• German export sector — euro/yen moved, competitiveness moves along with it

Anthropic and the $2 Trillion IPO: The Final Test of AI Fever

The fact: Anthropic (the owner of Claude) is hiring banks for an IPO that could value it at $2 trillion or more — a number that would make most big techs look small.

My verdict: I would hold positions in AI, but would not buy the IPO on day one. Valuations of this size demand stomach, and the risk of a post-euphoria correction is real. Let the dust settle.

Assets on the radar:

• NVDA (Nvidia) — infrastructure supplier, wins regardless of who comes out on top
• MSFT (Microsoft) — heavy AI investor via OpenAI
• GOOGL (Alphabet) — direct competitor with Gemini
• The semiconductor sector as a whole — SMH is the benchmark ETF

CaixaBank Hits €100 Billion: The Bank That Became a Turnaround Story

The fact: CaixaBank reached €100 billion in market value for the first time, with the Spanish government sitting on a billion-dollar profit from the stake inherited from Bankia.

My verdict: I would hold a position in Iberian banks. Multiples are still reasonable compared to American peers, and the European banking consolidation story has legs.

Assets on the radar:

• CABK.MC (CaixaBank) — the man himself
• SAN.MC (Santander) — diversified exposure to Latin America
• BBVA.MC (BBVA) — another Iberian player with attractive valuation
• EUFN (European banks ETF) — diversified basket of the sector

The Ibex Gem That Rose 718%: Still Worth Getting In?

The fact: A company on the Ibex has accumulated a 718% gain since 2021, received more recommendation upgrades than any other in the past year, and still has 17% more upside over twelve months, according to analysts.

My verdict: I would hold if already positioned, but would be cautious about initiating a position now. Anything that's up 700% has already priced in a lot of good news. The risk of a late entry is buying the top.

Assets on the radar:

• The asset itself — check whether it's IAG.MC (IAG) or MEL.MC (Meli