Wednesday Breakfast: The Fed woke up on the wrong side of the bed, oil topped US$100, and there's a giant IPO in Nigeria

Good morning, everyone. Sit down, because today's talk is heated. The Fed finally pulled the dust off its hat and raised rates for the first time in three years — and it wasn't half-hearted, either. Meanwhile, a barrel of oil is once again haunting everyone above US$100, and an IPO in Nigeria is drawing a line of investors. Let's get to what matters.

1. The Fed raised rates and the market still expects more

The fact: The U.S. Federal Reserve raised the rate to the 3.75%-4% range, the first hike in more than three years, with Kevin Warsh at the helm and inflation classified as "too high," directly contradicting Trump's call for rates at 1%.

My verdict: I would reduce exposure to long-duration assets and U.S. small caps. Higher rates for longer compresses the multiples of those promising profits only far down the road.

Assets on the radar:

• U.S. small caps (ETF IWM)
• U.S. banks (XLF) — here, honestly, the big banks are the ones who win with high rates
• Long Treasuries (TLT) — takes a beating
• Brazilian real (USDBRL) — a strong dollar tends to pressure the exchange rate around here

2. Oil above US$100 and no sign of a truce

The fact: With the conflict in the Middle East re-escalating and global inventories falling, the barrel once again surpassed US$100 and pushed U.S. fuel to historic records.

My verdict: I would buy exposure to quality oil companies. An energy shock tends to be persistent and upstream margins explode in this scenario.

Assets on the radar:

• Petrobras (PETR4 / PBR) — a direct beneficiary, but watch out for political interference
• Exxon (XOM) and Chevron (CVX)
• Energy ETF (XLE)
• Airlines and transport companies — here I'd run the other way

3. Dangote Refinery IPO: a line at the door

The fact: Investors are rushing to Keystone Bank branches to subscribe to the public offering of 4.1 billion shares of the Dangote refinery in Nigeria.

My verdict: I would buy a small, speculative position. It's an African refining + energy thesis with expensive oil — a powerful combination, but it's frontier, so the bet size has to be modest.

Assets on the radar:

• Dangote Refinery (public offering on the NGX)
• Keystone Bank (receiving agent)
• Emerging refining sector
• Nigerian naira (NGN) — capital inflow could give the currency temporary relief

4. Zcash surges and hits a 9-year high

The fact: ZEC jumped 14.45% in 24h to US$1,311, with a cumulative return of +2,484%, after the community approved Bitcoin-style halvings and faster blocks.

My verdict: I would reduce. After a rally like that, those who are in should take partial profits. I wouldn't enter now — pure momentum without flow fundamentals is a recipe for a headache. If I'm going to have crypto exposure, I prefer BTC and ETH.

Assets on the radar:

• Zcash (ZEC)
• Bitcoin (BTC)
• Ethereum (ETH)
• Crypto mining stocks

5. Chinese espionage on the F-35's radar

The fact: Internal U.S. intelligence reports warn of a risk of Chinese espionage in the sale of dozens of F-35 fighter jets to Saudi Arabia, a deal valued at US$24 billion.

My verdict: I would hold a position in defense. The thesis remains intact — geopolitical tension is fuel for the sector — but political noise can bring short-term volatility.

Assets on the radar:

• Lockheed Martin (LMT) — manufacturer of the F-35
• RTX Corp (RTX)
• Northrop Grumman (NOC)
• Defense ETF (ITA)

6. U.S. pressures Brazil over PCC and CV

The fact: The White House released a report stating that Brazil has failed to combat PCC and Comando Vermelho, classified as terrorist organizations by the Americans.

My verdict: I would keep caution with Brazilian assets exposed to domestic risk in the short term. The issue could escalate into sanctions or diplomatic noise, which moves the risk premium.

Assets on the radar:

• Ibovespa (IBOV)
• Banco do Brasil (BBAS3)
• Real (USDBRL)
• Private security sector — could benefit indirectly

Immediate opportunities

• Energy: integrated oil companies and energy ETFs with a barrel above US$100
• U.S. banks benefiting from margin with higher rates (XLF)
• Global defense with rising geopolitical tension (LMT, ITA)
• Small, speculative position in the Dangote Refinery IPO