Breakfast with the Market — 09/20/2026

Good morning, everyone. Grab a seat, the coffee's hot and the news is boiling. I've picked out what's really moving the needle today — heavy geopolitics, AI worth trillions, and a historic game of musical chairs in Omaha. Let's dive in.

1. Putin sharpens the knife against European allies

The fact: According to The Telegraph, Putin is reportedly preparing to escalate the war by targeting Ukraine's European allies directly, which could rattle NATO and freeze global markets.

My verdict: I WOULD REDUCE exposure to cyclical European assets and I WOULD BUY protection via defense and gold.

Assets on the radar:

• European defense: Rheinmetall (RHM.DE) and Leonardo (LDO.MI) tend to spike on any escalation.
• Energy: Shell (SHEL) and TotalEnergies (TTE) — the oil risk premium rises.
• Gold: GLD (GLD) as the classic safe haven.
• Sector to avoid: European banks and retail dependent on consumer spending in Eastern Europe.

2. Trump strikes a deal with Denmark over Greenland

The fact: Trump announced a deal with Denmark to strengthen the American military presence in Greenland while keeping the territory under Danish control — the "workaround" paid off without needing an invasion.

My verdict: I WOULD BUY exposure to mining and rare earths in the region. The Arctic has become the new chessboard.

Assets on the radar:

• Greenland Mines (GRML): literally applauded the deal — GRML on the Nasdaq is the most direct name.
• Rare earths: MP Materials (MP) — the narrative of independence from China gains strength.
• US defense: Lockheed Martin (LMT) and RTX (RTX) with Arctic contracts on the horizon.
• Logistics sector: Arctic shipping routes become a long-term strategic asset.

3. Anthropic eyes IPO with a $2 trillion valuation

The fact: Anthropic is reportedly preparing the largest IPO in history, with annualized revenue projected above $100 billion and a potential valuation of $2 trillion — even as its CEO calls for brakes on the speed of AI.

My verdict: I WOULD BUY at the IPO if the price isn't absurd. But keep your eyes open: I WOULD REDUCE positions in companies that only "talk" about AI and don't deliver revenue.

Assets on the radar:

• Anthropic (pre-IPO): keep an eye on the ticker when it launches.
• Nvidia (NVDA): every AI IPO is a new order for GPUs.
• Microsoft (MSFT) and Alphabet (GOOGL): direct competitors, but the AI market grows for everyone.
• Cloud sector: AWS, Azure, and Google Cloud — the infrastructure behind the party.

4. SPMO: the ETF that's crushing the S&P 500

The fact: The SPMO ETF, which holds the 100 S&P 500 stocks with the highest momentum, has beaten the index by an impressive 67 percentage points over the past five years.

My verdict: I WOULD BUY it as a satellite holding in the portfolio. Momentum works, but it demands a strong stomach during corrections.

Assets on the radar:

• SPMO (SPMO): the ETF itself is the most direct vehicle.
• MTUM (MTUM): iShares' competitor, a mandatory comparison.
• Big techs: Nvidia, Meta, and Broadcom tend to dominate the top of the momentum ranking.
• Passive management sector: BlackRock (BLK) and Invesco (IVZ) profit from the flow.

5. Buffett steps down as Berkshire chairman after 61 years

The fact: At 96, Warren Buffett announced he is stepping down as chairman of Berkshire Hathaway, closing a 61-year era and formalizing the leadership transition.

My verdict: I WOULD HOLD Berkshire (BRK.B). Successor Greg Abel has been running day-to-day operations for years — the giant cash pile and value culture remain intact.

Assets on the radar:

• Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B): the transition's stress test will be the next cycle.
• Largest positions: Apple (AAPL), American Express (AXP), and Bank of America (BAC) — any portfolio move shakes the market.
• Insurance sector: GEICO and the reinsurance operation remain the crown jewel.
• Value valuation: "value" stocks may lose some of the spotlight without the Oracle of Omaha.

6. Trump and Iran: "we'll see"

The fact: Trump left open the possibility of "annihilating" Iran amid escalating tensions, injecting uncertainty into the market and complicating any diplomatic off-ramp.

My verdict: I WOULD REDUCE exposure to emerging markets dependent on cheap oil and I WOULD BUY a hedge in energy.

Assets on the radar:

• Petr