Breakfast with the market: what matters today

Good morning, everyone. Monday was one of those days that had you refilling your cup twice: tech flying, bitcoin coming back to life, and oil giving us a breather that lifted the overall mood. Let's get straight to it — I've picked five stories that actually move your portfolio.

1. Nasdaq hits fresh record on AI euphoria

The fact: The Nasdaq 100 had its best day since early August, jumping more than 2% and closing at a new record of 27,122 points, driven by optimism around AI and the simultaneous drop in Treasury yields and oil.

I'd Buy — this is the kind of combination that rarely shows up: falling rates, cheap oil, and rising risk appetite. It's pure fuel for growth.

Assets on the radar:

• QQQ (Nasdaq 100 ETF) — the direct vehicle for this wave.
• NVDA — still the heart of the AI thesis.
• MSFT — cloud + AI, an unbeatable duo.
• SMH (semiconductor ETF) — thematic leverage.

2. Bitcoin back at $86K and hits eight-month high

The fact: After months of getting battered, bitcoin broke through $86,000, its highest level since January, lifted by improving global risk appetite.

I'd Hold — the rally is legitimate, but I'd rather not chase a move this vertical. If you're positioned, hold; if you're out, wait for a pullback to get in.

Assets on the radar:

• BTC — the asset itself.
• IBIT (BlackRock spot ETF) — institutional and regulated exposure.
• COIN — exchange with high beta to the crypto cycle.
• MSTR — leveraged BTC proxy, only for those with a strong stomach.

3. Copper in London flirts with new all-time high

The fact: Benchmark copper on the LME rose 1% and closed at $14,661/t, near its historic peak, with clear signs of short-term scarcity.

I'd Buy — this is the most structural story on the list. Electrification, data centers, and the energy transition aren't unplugging anytime soon. Physical scarcity is the kind of catalyst that supports prices for years, not weeks.

Assets on the radar:

• COPX (copper miners ETF) — diversified exposure.
• FCX — American giant in the sector.
• VALE3 — has meaningful copper in its portfolio, alongside iron ore.
• CPER (physical copper ETF) — a direct bet on the commodity.

4. Google pours €13B into data centers in Finland

The fact: Alphabet announced the largest European investment in its history — at least €13 billion in AI infrastructure in Finland over the next two years, including three new data centers powered by nuclear energy and cold climate.

I'd Buy — Alphabet is solving AI's real bottleneck: energy and cooling. This is long-term execution, not hype.

Assets on the radar:

• GOOGL — the company itself.
• CEG (Constellation Energy) — nuclear is AI's new darling.
• VRT (Vertiv) — data center thermal infrastructure.
• ETN (Eaton) — electrical power management.

5. Altcoins in extreme overbought territory: PENDLE, VVV, and FF

The fact: While bitcoin rises, altcoins like PENDLE (+54% on the month), VVV (new all-time high at $29.78), and FF (+35% in a single day) are surging with RSI in clearly overbought territory — a classic signal of correction risk.

I'd Trim — when RSI screams and volume explodes, it's usually time to take profits, not to enter. I'd rather rotate those gains into BTC or AI blue chips.

Assets on the radar:

• PENDLE — DeFi yield play, interesting but stretched.
• VVV — decentralized AI narrative, high risk.
• FF — typical speculative liquidity move.
• BTC — the natural destination for rotated capital.

Immediate Opportunities

• Tech and semiconductors (QQQ, SMH, NVDA) — a rare combination of falling rates and cheap oil favors growth.
• Copper and miners (COPX, FCX, VALE3) — physical scarcity with structural electrification demand.
• Nuclear energy and AI infrastructure (CEG, VRT, ETN) — the "picks and shovels" of the AI revolution.
• Ibex 35 — a 1.25% bounce reclaiming 19,700 points, with European flows returning.

Risks on the Radar

• Oil near $100 — if it starts climbing again, it kills the tech rally in its crib.
• Overbought altcoins (PENDLE, VVV, FF) — the correction could be violent and swift.
• AI concentration — Nasdaq at a record means little margin for error in the sector's earnings.
• Treasury yields — any reversal in the rate decline pulls the rug out from under the current move.

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