Daily General Analysis
September 26, 2026
Good morning, everyone! Grab your coffee and let's get to what matters
Busy week. Wall Street testing stock tokenization, the most concentrated S&P 500 in history, and a story that's going to make waves in European football. Let's get straight to the point.
1. S&P 500 in the hands of two companies: Nvidia and Apple dominate like never before
The fact: For the first time in history, two companies account for 15% of the S&P 500, with Nvidia and Apple driving this unprecedented dependency.
My verdict: I Would Reduce pure passive exposure to the index. It's not panic, it's math: when two stocks account for 15% of an index of 500 companies, your "diversified" portfolio has basically become a bet on two theses. If Nvidia sneezes for any reason, the entire index catches pneumonia.
Affected assets:
- NVDA (Nvidia) - heart of the AI thesis, but extremely expensive
- AAPL (Apple) - stability anchor, but growth is already mature
- SPY / IVV (S&P 500 ETFs) - beware the false sense of diversification
- RSP (S&P 500 equal-weight ETF) - a real alternative for those who want to escape this concentration
2. SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI are worth US$ 5.2 trillion combined
The fact: These three private companies are already worth more than all US tech IPOs of the last 45 years combined.
My verdict: I Would Buy indirect exposure through any vehicle that can get a piece of this pie. The problem? Most of us don't have direct access. But this signals something powerful: the money of the future is going to companies that stay private longer. Keep an eye on venture funds and listed AI proxies.
Affected assets:
- MSFT (Microsoft) - largest shareholder in OpenAI, your most direct proxy
- GOOGL (Alphabet) - rivals Anthropic and invests in Anthropic
- AMZN (Amazon) - heavy investor in Anthropic
- Venture capital sector and pre-IPO funds - the only realistic entry point today
3. AVAX surges 25% as Wall Street tests tokenization
The fact: Avalanche rose 25% on the week (to around US$ 10.31) after Wall Street began testing tokenized stock trading on its network.
My verdict: I Would Hold if you're already positioned - the catalyst is real and serious. But I Would Reduce new purchases at this level. A 25% rally in one week calls for caution; stock tokenization is a long-term thesis, not a weekend trade.
Affected assets:
- AVAX (Avalanche) - protagonist of the story
- ETH (Ethereum) - main competitor in asset tokenization
- RWA (Real World Assets) sector on blockchain - structural trend
- BLK (BlackRock) and major asset managers - players driving this agenda
4. AI in clinical trials: from US$ 2 billion to US$ 7.3 billion by 2034
The fact: The market for AI applied to clinical trials is expected to grow at 15.5% per year, reaching US$ 7.32 billion by 2034, transforming patient recruitment and data analysis.
My verdict: I Would Buy the big pharmas that are truly embracing AI and the healthcare software companies that bridge the gap. This isn't hype - it's pure efficiency. Clinical trials cost billions and take years; AI cuts that in half. Whoever masters this interface dominates the next decade of the pharmaceutical industry.
Affected assets:
- LLY (Eli Lilly) and PFE (Pfizer) - big pharmas investing heavily in digital
- IQV (IQVIA) - leader in data and services for clinical trials
- VEEV (Veeva Systems) - management software for life sciences
- Healthtech and AI applied to healthcare sector
5. Manchester City found guilty: 115 financial rules broken
The fact: Manchester City was found guilty of the majority of 115 Premier League financial rule violations.
My verdict: I Would Sell any exposure to European football clubs that depend on dubious state capital. City is the most blatant case, but the message applies to the entire sector: the regulatory bar is rising. For those investing in City Football Group shares or in funds with exposure to European clubs, the "infinite petrodollar money" thesis just took a hard hit. Relegation, heavy fines, and a sponsor exodus could be coming.
Affected assets:
- City Football Group (holding company that owns Man City) - direct risk
- CFG-related investments - any fund with exposure
- European football club sector as a whole - growing regulatory scrutiny
- Sports betting companies - may benefit from the chaos, but with reputational risk
Immediate opportunities
- RSP (S&P 500 equal-weight ETF) - real protection against excessive concentration in NVDA and AAPL
- Big pharma with AI (LLY, PFE, IQV) - the AI boom in healthcare is just beginning and valuations are still reasonable
- AVAX and the RWA sector - asset tokenization is a trend of years, not months; take advantage of corrections to position yourself
- Private AI proxies (MSFT, AMZN, GOOG
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