Coffee, croissant, and market: the week in review

Good morning, everyone. Grab a seat because today's talk is hot. While the US Treasury throws a historic tantrum, smaller cryptos are making noise and Apple took a billion-dollar hit. Let's get straight to what moves your portfolio.

1. FIL: The rocket launched, but watch the ceiling

The fact: Filecoin (FIL) jumped 14.41% in 24h to $1.13 with doubled volume, but is still 99.52% below its all-time high.

My verdict: I'd Hold — if you're already in. If you're out, I'd Reduce the excitement and wait for a pullback. A 14% rally with record volume is cool, but when the token is 99% off its peak, that's technical momentum, not fundamentals. It's a trade, not a conviction investment.

Assets impacted: FIL (Filecoin), AR (Arweave), STX (Stacks), decentralized storage sector.

2. DASH and the privacy coin rally

The fact: DASH surged 14.14% in 24h, breaking above $72, with volume 58% above average and accumulating +242% over 12 months.

My verdict: I'd Buy a small, tactical position. The RSI at 68 already shows overbought conditions, but the privacy sector is having its "renaissance" moment. The buying flow is real. Just don't put your rent money in it.

Assets impacted: DASH, XMR (Monero), ZEC (Zcash), privacy coins sector.

3. GRAM/Toncoin: Approaching the all-time high

The fact: GRAM (formerly Toncoin) rose 10.96% with volume 164% above average, knocking on the $1.58 resistance door and the $1.83 ATH.

My verdict: I'd Hold firm. Unlike FIL, GRAM is near its all-time high, which means there's no heavy psychological "ceiling" weighing it down. If it breaks $1.58 with volume, it opens space for new highs. I'm watching closely.

Assets impacted: GRAM/TON, Telegram ecosystem, alternative Layer 1 projects.

4. Amazon and the $300 billion bet on Anthropic

The fact: Anthropic's IPO could become the biggest venture capital play in recent history, and Amazon is the big beneficiary with its strategic stake.

My verdict: I'd Buy AMZN without blinking. This isn't just about AI, it's about Amazon having bought a winning lottery ticket before the draw. The potential return on investment is absurd. And the halo effect for AWS is massive.

Assets impacted: AMZN (Amazon), MSFT (Microsoft, via OpenAI), GOOGL (Google, via DeepMind), cloud + AI sector.

5. Treasury at 5.2%: the elephant in the room

The fact: The 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.2%, the highest since 2007, and US public debt could explode to 222% of GDP in 30 years.

My verdict: I'd Reduce exposure to long-duration fixed income and pure growth stocks. When the "risk-free" rate pays 5.2%, the market reprices EVERYTHING. This isn't a one-day scare, it's a regime change. Keep an eye on banks and insurers that benefit from high rates.

Assets impacted: TLT (long bond ETF), banking sector (JPM, BAC), real estate (REITs), growth stocks in general.

6. Apple found liable: the bill came due

The fact: Apple was ordered to pay the largest patent infringement damages in US history, related to haptic feedback technology in iPhones and Apple Watches.

My verdict: I'd Hold AAPL. Look, it's ugly, it's billions, but Apple has the cash to absorb this. What worries me isn't the fine itself, it's the precedent. If the floodgates open for more lawsuits, legal risk becomes a permanent shadow. Still, the brand's pricing power is too strong for me to exit now.

Assets impacted: AAPL, haptic technology suppliers, patent and IP sector.

Bonus: Bitcoin ETFs back in the green

The fact: Bitcoin ETFs recorded $2.4 billion in weekly inflows, the largest since October, putting the annual flow back into positive territory.

My verdict: I'd Buy IBIT (iShares Bitcoin Trust) as a medium-term position. Institutional flow is returning, and when big money comes in, it doesn't leave on the first bout of volatility. It's a vote of confidence in the asset.

Assets impacted: BTC, IBIT, GBTC, COIN (Coinbase).

Immediate opportunities

• AMZN: The Anthropic bet is an asymmetric lever that the market still underestimates.
• DASH and privacy coins: Real momentum with volume. Tactical position, tight stop.
• Bitcoin via ETF (IBIT): Institutional flow back to positive is a sign of accumulation.
• Banks and insurers: Higher rates for longer benefit the traditional financial sector.

Risks on the radar

• Treasury at 5.2%: If it keeps rising, the entire stock market feels it. Keep an eye on TLT.
• FIL and GRAM overbought: High RSI and explosive volume can turn into a quick correction.
• Apple and the legal precedent: The fine is big, but the risk of new lawsuits is bigger.
• US debt: 222% of GDP in 30 years isn't today's problem,