Daily General Analysis
October 13, 2026
Wednesday Breakfast: What's Moving the Market Today
Good morning, everyone. Grab your coffee because today's menu is hot: geopolitics in the Arctic, a broken ceasefire in Ukraine, TSMC smashing profit records, the dollar at an 18-month high, and a BIS warning on stablecoins. Let's get to what matters.
1. The Arctic Thawed and Turned Into a Chessboard
The fact: Melting ice is opening new shipping routes and access to mineral and energy resources, but it's throwing major powers into a dispute that strains a nearly 30-year cooperation model.
My verdict: I Would Buy selective exposure to maritime logistics and rare earth mining, but with a small position — this is a decade thesis, not a quarterly one.
- Assets on the radar: Maersk (MAERSK-B), A.P. Moller-Maersk, Freeport-McMoRan (FCX), Glencore (GLEN.L) and the naval/offshore sector in general.
2. Energy Ceasefire Broken Within 24 Hours
The fact: Zelensky said Russia attacked Ukrainian power plants and energy infrastructure less than a day after Trump announced an "energy ceasefire," and Europe is already signaling a tougher line against Moscow.
My verdict: I Would Hold European oil and gas in the portfolio, but reduce any bet on a quick normalization of Russian supply. The geopolitical risk premium isn't going away anytime soon.
- Assets on the radar: Brent (BZ), Equinor (EQNR), Shell (SHEL), TotalEnergies (TTE).
3. TSMC Poised for Another Profit Record
The fact: The Taiwanese giant reports Q3 results on October 15 and analysts expect record profit, driven by insatiable demand for AI infrastructure.
My verdict: I Would Buy TSMC and semiconductor supply chain suppliers. As long as the AI race doesn't cool off, whoever makes the silicon remains the mandatory toll booth.
- Assets on the radar: TSMC (TSM), ASML (ASML), Nvidia (NVDA), Applied Materials (AMAT).
4. Dollar at 18-Month High
The fact: The dollar index rose to 102.58, the highest level since April 2025, pressured by Gulf tensions and stubborn US inflation.
My verdict: I Would Reduce exposure to emerging markets and short-term dollar-denominated assets, but maintain currency hedges for those with real-denominated revenue and dollar-denominated debt. A strong dollar is a double-edged sword.
- Assets on the radar: DXY, EWZ (Brazil ETF), USDBRL, iShares MSCI Emerging Markets (EEM).
5. BIS Sounds the Alarm on $300B in Stablecoins
The fact: The Bank for International Settlements warned that the stablecoin market could face bank runs even with full reserves, due to cross-border frictions between affiliated issuers.
My verdict: I Would Reduce stablecoins from smaller issuers and keep only the "too big to fail" ones as a liquidity vehicle, never as a store of value. Contagion risk is real.
- Assets on the radar: USDT (Tether), USDC (Circle), Coinbase (COIN), Bitcoin (BTC).
6. India in Its Demographic Golden Age
The fact: With a median age of 29 and GDP growing strongly, India is enjoying a demographic dividend while the US, UK, and Europe age.
My verdict: I Would Buy structural exposure to India via ETFs and consumer and infrastructure stocks. It's the most obvious 10-to-20-year thesis on the planet.
- Assets on the radar: iShares MSCI India (INDA), HDFC Bank (HDB), Infosys (INFY), Reliance Industries.
Immediate Opportunities
- Semiconductors: TSMC's preview could catalyze the entire AI sector.
- European energy: geopolitical premium not yet fully priced in as Europe splits with Trump.
- India: staggered entry into ETF (INDA) taking advantage of any short-term pullback.
- Arctic logistics: small, long-term position in shipping companies and miners exposed to the region.
Risks on the Radar
- Dollar at 102.58: extra pressure on emerging markets and multinationals with USD debt.
- Stablecoins: BIS warning could foreshadow tough regulation and a run on smaller issuers.
- Ukraine: ceasefire broken in 24h shows any truce is fragile — energy volatility remains high.
- Arctic: military escalation between powers could turn opportunity into regulatory trap.
Related News
Your Passport to Global Investments
Ivar recommends Swissquote bank for your international investments. By opening your account through the link below and trading 5 lots or more, you will receive $200 to use on Ivar AI and activate your subscription. Take advantage of this exclusive offer available today!
Offer available for you who have not yet opened your account at Swissquote.
Services available globally except for the following countries: Algeria, Belgium, Canada, China, North Korea, USA, France, Hong Kong, Iran, Iraq, Nigeria, Singapore, Syria, Turkey and Zimbabwe.
About Us
Av Norte Miguel Arraes de Alencar, 3003. CP974. Encruzilhada, Recife-PE, Brasil.
+55(81)98180-0091
support@ivar-ai.com