Market Radar — October 22, 2026

Good morning, everyone. Coffee in hand? Because today's menu is heavy: oil surging, the UN throwing a bucket of cold water on the climate crowd, and Musk shuffling the pieces between SpaceX and Tesla. I'll get straight to the point, in the order it affects your wallet.

1. Oil at $111 and the crisis that won't end

The fact: Brent broke through $111 a barrel after the IEA (International Energy Agency) warned that the global energy market may not normalize before 2027.

My verdict: I'd Buy — while supply remains tight and the IEA talks about a prolonged crisis, energy producers have the wind at their backs. Now is not the time to bet against the barrel.

Assets to watch:

• XOM (Exxon) and CVX (Chevron) — majors riding the high price;
• XLE (energy sector ETF) — diversified exposure to the theme;
• PBR (Petrobras) — producer sensitive to Brent, with the currency bonus;
• The energy sector as a whole in the S&P 500.

2. UN: the world is heading toward 2.8°C

The fact: A UN report shows that countries' climate commitments are insufficient and the planet is heading toward catastrophic warming of up to 2.8°C, having already surpassed the 1.5°C mark.

My verdict: I'd Hold — terrible news for the planet, but medium-term fuel for those in the energy transition. This isn't a day to sell, it's a day to position calmly.

Assets to watch:

• ICLN (clean energy ETF) — the theme gains urgency;
• NEE (NextEra Energy) — renewables giant;
• TSLA (Tesla) — electric mobility and storage;
• The utilities and insurance sectors, pressured by climate risk.

3. SpaceX: revenue doubled and profit came in strong

The fact: SpaceX reported $14.6 billion in quarterly revenue (up 161% year over year) and $4.4 billion in profit, turning the tables on the prior year's loss, driven by AI and Starlink — and Musk is already talking about $1 trillion in revenue by 2028.

My verdict: I'd Buy exposure to the space/satellite theme, especially with Starlink showing real traction. The $1 trillion target is a dream, but the quarter's numbers are not.

Assets to watch:

• RKLB (Rocket Lab) — listed proxy for the space sector;
• IRDM (Iridium) — satellite internet;
• ASTS (AST SpaceMobile) — niche Starlink competitor;
• The satellite telecom sector as a whole.

4. Musk explores Tesla + SpaceX merger

The fact: SpaceX and Tesla have created special committees to study a possible merger that would combine Tesla's cars, energy, and robotics with SpaceX's rockets and Starlink — and could be the largest merger in history.

My verdict: I'd Hold TSLA. The thesis gets more interesting with the AI marriage between the two, but a merger of this size brings regulatory and execution noise. I'm holding my position and watching, without adding now.

Assets to watch:

• TSLA (Tesla) — the listed side of the operation;
• RKLB and ASTS — react to the strengthening of the SpaceX ecosystem;
• The electric vehicles and aerospace sectors.

5. Anthropic and the billion-dollar computing bill

The fact: According to the WSJ, Anthropic may spend up to $750 billion on additional processing capacity over the coming years — a clear signal that the race for AI infrastructure is only heating up.

My verdict: I'd Buy the supply chain providers, not necessarily "AI" itself. Whoever sells the shovel in the gold rush tends to make money regardless of who gets there first.

Assets to watch:

• NVDA (Nvidia) — the heart of AI hardware;
• AVGO (Broadcom) — chips and networking;
• VRT (Vertiv) — data center infrastructure;
• The semiconductors and data centers sectors.

6. Brazil: falling deforestation is worth billions

The fact: An FGV study estimates that the decline in deforestation in the Amazon and Cerrado has added up to R$192 billion to the Brazilian economy since 2023, with R$1.16 trillion in global climate benefits.

My verdict: I'd Buy the sustainable Brazil thesis — it's a real competitive edge for attracting green capital and unlocking international credit.

Assets to watch:

• EWZ (Brazil ETF) — the country's thermometer abroad;
• SUZB3 and KLBN11 — pulp with certified forest management;
• BBAS3 — exposure to agricultural and green credit;
• The agribusiness and carbon credits sectors.

Opport