Hey everyone. I grabbed my triple coffee, checked the terminals, and wow — the weekend was intense, and not just because of the New York summer. Tensions between the US and Iran escalated sharply, and oil skyrocketed. Meanwhile, smart money keeps flowing into tech, and there's an altcoin hitting record highs. Let me break down what really matters for the week ahead. ## 1. Oil Explodes After Attacks in the Strait of Hormuz The fact: The US launched a new round of strikes against Iran, pushing Brent near $79 and WTI to $73.87, as the market prices in the risk of disruption in the Strait of Hormuz. My verdict: I'd Sell – not oil itself, but shares of oil companies that have already rallied too much and now face the risk of government intervention (price controls or windfall taxes). The peak of geopolitical euphoria is the time to reduce positions, not to buy. Influenced assets: XOM (Exxon), CVX (Chevron), Petrobras (PETR4), and the XLE energy ETF. ## 2. Record Inflows into US Stocks, Led by Tech The fact: US equity funds attracted $24.97 billion in the week through July 8, the largest inflow in three weeks, driven by expectations of tech earnings (estimated growth of 40.8%) and hopes for the end of the interest rate hiking cycle. My verdict: I'd Buy – the "risk-on" move is solid. I'm increasing exposure to broad indices like the S&P 500 (SPY) and big techs with strong guidance. Influenced assets: QQQ (Nasdaq), AAPL, MSFT, NVDA. ## 3. Big Oil Profits, but Government Gets Angry The fact: Oil supermajors are set to report massive profits in Q2 2026 thanks to the oil spike, but this is fueling discontent within the Trump administration, which may retaliate with measures to curb consumer prices. My verdict: I'd Hold – the sector has a short-term tailwind, but political risk (windfall profit tax, release of strategic reserves) is increasing. I'll hold what I have, but won't buy more. Influenced assets: SHEL (Shell), TTE (TotalEnergies), BP, and the refining sector (VLO). ## 4. US, Iran, and the Strait of Hormuz Nightmare The fact: Analysts warn that Trump's window to avoid a full blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is closing, which could send oil to $100+ and cause a global supply shock. My verdict: I'd Reduce – any asset dependent on maritime supply chains (retail, importers) or sensitive to cost inflation. The odds of a "nightmare" scenario have gone from 10% to about 25% in my book. Influenced assets: Maritime shipping (ZIM), airlines (AAL, UAL), cargo insurance, and oil itself (USO). ## 5. Zcash ($ZEC) and DeXe ($DEXE) Surge in the Crypto World The fact: Zcash jumped 1,119% year-to-date and broke through $500 (its highest level since 2018), while DeXe (DEXE) hit a new all-time high of $48.2, with volume 340% above average — both driven by the narrative of privacy and decentralized governance. My verdict: I'd Hold (but cautiously) – I wouldn't buy at the top, as +1,000% moves in speculative crypto assets often lead to violent corrections. Those already in can hold with a stop. Those on the sidelines should wait. Influenced assets: ZEC, DEXE, and the privacy ecosystem (Monero – XMR). ## 6. California Attracts 10x More Venture Capital Than New York The fact: California raised over $335 billion in venture capital this year, more than 10 times the runner-up (New York), showing tech innovation is still heavily concentrated in Silicon Valley. My verdict: I'd Buy – indirectly, this reinforces the thesis of investing in ETFs tracking the US innovation ecosystem (ARKK, QQQ) and in companies that are "safe havens" for venture capital. Influenced assets: ARKK (Innovation ETF), QQQ, major banks with VC exposure (JPM), and commercial real estate in SF/NY. --- ### Immediate Opportunities - US Tech: buy on short-term dips, taking advantage of fund inflows and strong guidance. - Defense sector: with the Middle East escalation, companies like LMT (Lockheed Martin) and RTX tend to benefit. - Crypto (privacy): ZEC and XMR could keep rising if demand for anonymous transactions grows, but only with a tight stop loss. ### Risks on the Radar - Iran-US escalation: any attack that closes the Strait of Hormuz could send oil above $100 and drag down global markets. - Government intervention on oil profits: a populist measure by Trump could compress oil company margins. - Crypto correction: the ZEC and DEXE rally looks overdone; a "sell the news" event is likely. - Interest rates: any sign the Fed will keep rates high for longer could cool the flow into stocks. --- *This analysis is personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice.* Sources: - Globo – Oil rises with conflict - Yahoo TW – Inflows into US funds - NY Post – New strikes on Iran -

New York Post

Trump directs fresh round of strikes on Iran to hold regime’s forces ‘accountable’