Good morning, everyone. The coffee is hot and the market is on fire — literally.

Today's menu is heavy: the Middle East boiling over, oil surging, OpenAI worth more than the GDP of many countries, and a silent war happening behind the scenes in AI chips. Let's get straight to what matters.

1. Strait of Hormuz: The Oil Powder Keg

The fact: Tensions in the Strait of Hormuz have escalated dramatically — attacks on tankers, explosions in Iran, and military movements around the world's largest oil facility sent Brent soaring above $107/barrel and WTI approaching $103, opening a spread of more than $40 between crude grades.

My verdict: I Would Buy oil and energy now. This is no time to play the hero betting on "it'll calm down." With 20% of global oil supply passing through a corridor that has become a war zone, the risk premium only has one direction in the short term. If you have no exposure to energy, you're missing the show.

Assets on the radar:

• XLE (U.S. energy ETF) — broad and liquid exposure
• XOM (Exxon Mobil) — integrated giant, benefits directly
• CVX (Chevron) — same logic, strong balance sheet
• USO (oil ETF) — for those who want a pure commodity trade

2. OpenAI at $1.2 Trillion: The Bubble That Wants to Become a Mountain

The fact: OpenAI is in preliminary talks to raise capital at a valuation of $1.2 trillion ahead of a planned IPO — a figure that would place it among the most valuable companies on the planet.

My verdict: I Would Hold — with great caution. Look, I love the AI story, but $1.2 trillion pre-IPO is a science-fiction valuation. You can't "buy" it directly yet, but you can play the theme through proxies. Anyone getting in on a potential IPO will need a strong stomach and a 5+ year horizon.

Assets on the radar:

• MSFT (Microsoft) — largest investor and strategic partner
• NVDA (Nvidia) — supplies the training infrastructure
• GOOGL (Alphabet) — direct competitor via Gemini
• AMZN (Amazon) — via AWS and investment in Anthropic

3. Lenovo Takes the x86 Server Crown

The fact: Lenovo overtook all competitors to become the global number 1 in x86 server shipments in Q2 2026, with 286,000 units (+45.6% YoY) and revenue of $8.26 billion (+96% YoY), coming within just 0.6 percentage points of the revenue leadership.

My verdict: I Would Buy Lenovo and the server infrastructure sector. This number isn't luck — it's the brutal demand for AI capacity in data centers overflowing across the entire stack. Lenovo is riding the wave with competitive pricing and scale.

Assets on the radar:

• 0992.HK (Lenovo Group) — the direct protagonist
• DELL (Dell Technologies) — direct competitor, still relevant
• SMCI (Super Micro) — pure-play AI server player
• HPE (Hewlett Packard Enterprise) — another industry giant

4. MLCC: The Silent "Pickaxe Seller" of AI

The fact: Morgan Stanley classified MLCC capacitors as the "pickaxe seller" with the highest leverage in AI data center spending, projecting annual growth of 20.3% through 2031 and a market of $44.45 billion, with Murata and Samsung Electro-Mechanics as the biggest beneficiaries.

My verdict: I Would Buy the MLCC leaders. This is the kind of insight the market takes a while to price in — everyone looks at Nvidia, but nobody realizes that every AI server needs thousands of these components. It's selling pickaxes in the gold rush.

Assets on the radar:

• 6981.T (Murata Manufacturing) — global MLCC leader
• 009150.KS (Samsung Electro-Mechanics) — second-largest player
• 2327.TW (Yageo) — relevant Taiwanese player
• AVX / the passive components sector as a whole

5. U.S. Sends 40,000 Bombs to Israel: The Bill of War

The fact: The Trump administration is preparing to sell 40,000 heavy 2,000-pound bombs to Israel in a $2.8 billion package, while the war against Iran has already accumulated an estimated cost of $38 billion and adds $3 billion per month.

My verdict: I Would Reduce exposure to risk assets in Middle Eastern emerging markets and I Would Buy defense. The escalation shows no sign of a truce and the U.S. fiscal cost is starting to weigh. Defense is the obvious trade here.

Assets on the radar:

• LMT (Lockheed Martin) — defense systems manufacturer
• RTX (Raytheon) — missiles and air defense
• ITA (defense and aerospace ETF) — diversified exposure
• GD (General Dynamics) — another industry giant