October 4, 2026
The weekend served up quite a varied menu: stablecoins taking on a "too big to fail" vibe, Boeing aggressively jumping back into the military game, Brazil heading to the polls, and Petrobras hitting a record. Let's get to what matters.
The fact: A heavyweight consortium led by Visa (V), Mastercard (MA), Stripe, Shopify, and Coinbase (COIN) has put $1 billion into a new stablecoin, "Open USD," aimed directly at the reign of Tether and USDC.
My verdict: I'd Buy — specifically V and MA. When the owners of the payment rails decide to issue their own digital currency, they stop paying tolls to third parties and capture the margin. It's the classic "if you can't beat them, buy the market."
Assets to watch:
V and MA — owners of the infrastructure, they come out ahead.COIN — gains trading volume, but becomes a competitor to its own USDC (Circle). It gets squeezed.The fact: Boeing (BA) beat Northrop Grumman and secured the development contract for the U.S. Navy's sixth-generation fighter, with an initial value above $20 billion and potential to reach hundreds of billions over the life cycle.
My verdict: I'd Buy BA. Boeing had been bleeding commercial reputation (737 MAX, delays), but defense is recurring, predictable revenue with the U.S. government footing the bill. This repositions the company on the institutional radar.
Assets to watch:
BA — obvious, but it's the direct winner.NOC (Northrop) — lost, but remains strong on other fronts; the drop could be an opportunity.LMT and RTX — indirect beneficiaries of the global rearmament cycle.The fact: Brazilians vote today in an election decided by the mutual rejection between Lula and Bolsonaro's political heir, with the result also testing Trump's influence in Latin America.
My verdict: I'd Hold positions in EWZ (Brazil ETF) until the result comes out. Now is not the time to bet heavily on either side — the base case is short-term volatility and a decision only in the runoff. I'd rather wait for the price to adjust.
Assets to watch:
EWZ — a direct thermometer of country risk.BRL) — should swing hard on Monday.PETR4 / VALE3 — state-owned companies and commodities feel the political mood.The fact: Spot crypto ETFs in the U.S. attracted $10.2 billion in net inflows in Q3 2026, with Bitcoin leading, but Solana (SOL) showing the most explosive percentage growth.
My verdict: I'd Buy exposure to Solana via regulated vehicles. Bitcoin is already an institutional consensus; the asymmetry now lies in altcoins with real use cases and growing adoption. SOL is becoming the "Visa of blockchains" in throughput.
Assets to watch:
SOL — strongest relative growth of the quarter.BTC — the sector's safe harbor, but with less upside from here.COIN — gains from volume, regardless of which coin rises.MARA, RIOT) — beneficiaries of institutional flows.The fact: Putin promised to escalate airstrikes against Kyiv, including bombing vital bridges, while Zelensky vows retaliation and foreign diplomats are advised to leave the country.
My verdict: I'd Increase my position in European defense and I'd Reduce exposure to European emerging market assets. A drawn-out war with escalation is fuel for military spending and pressure on energy.
Assets to watch:
RHM.DE (Rheinmetall) and BA.L (BAE Systems) — direct beneficiaries.TTF) — risk of a scarcity premium.EWW (Mexico ETF) and emerging markets in general — risk aversion could weigh.XAU/USD) — the classic geopolitical hedge.The fact: Petrobras (PETR4) reached a record market value of R$700 billion after announcing a relevant discovery in Amapá, adding R$20.9 billion on Friday alone.
My verdict: I'd Buy PETR4, but with a caveat: post-election political risk is real. If the new government messes with the pricing policy or dividend distribution, the shine fades fast. Still, the underlying asset justifies the optimism.
Assets to watch:
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